Brazil’s Credit Rating and the US inflation problem

In 1989 Moody’s downgraded Brazil to BB- unjustly, causing enormous suffering and strife to the Brazilian people and government.

Moody’s and S&P, and most Americans, have yet to realize the concept of Real Interest rates, rather than Nominal Interest rates, which is a misleading pricing scheme. It misleads people into believing that they are receiving much more "interest" than they really are. In Brazil that would be a false advertising.

During the last twenty years, Brazil always had the ability to pay the Real Interest rate of its loans, plus an extra for amortization. It never deserved the rating of "questionable ability to pay".

Now a Brazilian Rating Agency has used the reason against the US Treasuries. Because they are not indexed to inflation "there is a questionable doubt that investor’s will receive the true value of their investment, due to future US inflation".

For 30 year treasuries, where a 4% inflation will erode principal by 50% at least, a double CC would have been more justified. But that would have seemed overreacting.

But it is about time the American investors realize that Nominal Interest Rates is a form of false advertising, wrong pricing model, because part of that interest is inflation, and not interest. And inflation is not income by any means.

That is one the reason’s of the sub-prime crisis. Forcing poor people to pay "inflated interest rates" in the beginning of their life cycle, and paying totally eroded principal 30 years down the line.

Meanwhile inflation in Brazil is under control and the country today provides the highest real interest rate in the world which makes it an essential market for investments in fixed income.